Mahamat Idriss Déby Rules Chad as Doba Crude Exports Through Cameroon Keep Economy Afloat

, The stakes. Chad’s post-election stability and debt path now rest on a narrow oil export corridor and aid-dependent budgeting., The date. Mahamat Idriss Déby was confirmed president-elect on 16 May 2024 after the disputed 6 May vote., The oil dependence. Oil represented 14.3 percent of GDP, 51.8 percent of government revenues and 65.3 percent of exports in 2024, on World Bank figures., The refugee burden. Over one million Sudanese refugees add heavy fiscal and food-security pressure to an already strained state., The hunger and debt. Chronic hunger and a public debt stock near 28.7 percent of GDP project for 2026, leaving little room for shock absorption.

Mahamat Idriss Déby’s elected presidency has formalised a military transition but not an economic transformation. Chad enters 2026 still hostage to Doba crude shipped through Cameroon, while refugee costs, hunger and debt absorb the limited fiscal space oil prices provide.

Chad’s presidential election held on 6 May 2024 returned Mahamat Idriss Déby of the Patriotic Salvation Movement to power.

The National Election Management Agency, known by its French acronym ANGE, announced provisional results on 9 May 2024 giving Déby 61.03 percent of votes.

Succès Masra, the Les Transformateurs leader then serving as prime minister, received 18.53 percent.

Turnout was around 75.78 percent of more than 8.2 million registered voters.

The Constitutional Council confirmed Déby as winner on 16 May 2024, rejecting objections from losing candidates.

Council president Jean-Bernard Padaré declared Déby president-elect of the republic after obtaining an absolute majority of votes cast.

Déby came to power in April 2021 after his father, President Idriss Déby Itno, was killed on the battlefield fighting rebels.

He initially headed a transitional military council, widely described in press reports as a junta.

Human Rights Watch notes that the political transition ended with Déby’s May 2024 election, formally completing the post-2021 process.

On 3 October 2025, Chad’s Parliament, comprising the National Assembly and Senate, approved constitutional amendments extending the presidential term from five to seven years.

The parliamentary session was boycotted by some opposition parties.

The head of state promulgated the new constitution on 8 October 2025.

The World Bank describes Chad’s economic performance as marked by volatility and modest growth, driven by heavy reliance on oil.

Oil represents about 15 percent of GDP, 41 percent of government revenues and 76 percent of exports.

In 2024, the oil sector contributed 14.3 percent of GDP, 51.8 percent of fiscal revenues and 65.3 percent of exports.

Agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and accounts for around 40 percent of GDP, making it highly vulnerable to climate shocks and low productivity.

This dual dependence on crude and rain leaves the Chadian treasury exposed to both global price swings and domestic weather failures.

Chad’s oil exports depend on the Doba basin crude system, which moves landlocked production through a pipeline to Cameroon for offshore loading.

That fixed corridor gives Cameroon bargaining power over transit and makes Chadian revenue sensitive to any disruption along the route.

The World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook reports that oil-sector expansion of 6.6 percent drove growth in 2025.

Yet for 2025, a separate country context note projected oil GDP falling by 0.7 percent; in the event it expanded by 6.6 percent in 2025.

The contradiction between projections and outcomes shows how quickly field-level decline or export bottlenecks can alter the fiscal picture.

The World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook for Chad reports GDP growth reached 5.6 percent in 2025, equivalent to 2.1 percent per capita.

Lower food and transport prices produced inflation of negative 2.6 percent in 2025, reducing poverty to 40.7 percent measured at US$3.00 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity.

For 2026, GDP growth is projected at 5.2 percent, or 2.5 percent per capita, supported by non-oil sector expansion of 6.0 percent.

The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 0.4 percent of GDP in 2026, with the primary balance turning positive.

Public debt is expected to decline to 28.7 percent of GDP, supported by a rebound in oil prices.

Despite these improvements, poverty is projected to fall only slowly, from 40.7 percent in 2025 to 39.5 percent by 2028, underscoring how little growth reaches the poorest households.

Chinese capital has concentrated on oil-field infrastructure, roads and state-backed lending, often tied to crude repayment or procurement contracts.

Western investment has focused more on the Doba project legacy, humanitarian financing and multilateral budget support rather than large new private inflows.

The World Bank remains the central multilateral counterpart, publishing regular macro-poverty and economic updates for Chad.

Investors therefore face a bifurcated market: Chinese commercial and infrastructure finance versus Western aid-linked and development-finance exposure.

This split shapes how external partners respond to Chadian fiscal stress and political change.

Chad hosts over one million Sudanese refugees, making it one of the largest per-capita refugee hosts in Africa.