IOC set for sharp Q1 loss as marketing margins weigh
Indian Oil Corporation will report first-quarter earnings on Friday that analysts expect to show a steep consolidated loss, highlighting severe downstream margin pressures that are overriding strong refining cracks.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has scheduled its board meeting for 31 July 2026 to approve its standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results for the quarter ended 30 June. In line with regulatory requirements, the company’s trading window for designated insiders has been closed since 1 July and will remain shut until 2 August.
Brokerage Equirus expects the state-run refiner to post a consolidated net loss of ₹139,085 million for the period. This represents a dramatic reversal from earnings per share of 8.1 in the preceding quarter and 4.0 a year earlier, with the projected EPS coming in at minus 7.9. Despite the deteriorating bottom line, net sales are estimated to climb 17.7% sequentially and 24.6% year-on-year to ₹2,403,663 million.
The anticipated loss is being driven by weak-to-negative marketing margins and inventory losses. Equirus forecasts an EBITDA of minus ₹135,426 million and an EBIT of minus ₹181,580 million. This marks a sharp contraction from an EBITDA margin of 8% in the previous quarter and 7% a year earlier, dropping to a negative 6%. While strong refining cracks and previously announced LPG compensation instalments are providing some offset, they are insufficient to counter the broader downstream weakness.
Shares of IOC have reflected this uncertainty, trading in a tight band ahead of the results. The stock opened at ₹141.65 on the BSE, fluctuating between an intraday low of ₹140.15 and a high of ₹142.25. According to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, IOC has been consolidating within a ₹130-149 range since 23 March.
Shah noted that a flat Average Directional Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, alongside a narrow Relative Strength Index band, point to an absence of sustained bullish or bearish momentum. He indicated that a decisive breakout above ₹149 or a breakdown below ₹130 is required to provide the next meaningful directional cue.
For market participants, the upcoming release will clarify the extent of the structural pain in IOC's marketing and petrochemical segments. Investors will be looking closely at management commentary regarding OPEC+ supply outlooks, ongoing LPG under-recoveries, and capital expenditure progress. The results will ultimately determine if the current technical consolidation gives way to a breakout or a breakdown.
