India stocks eye flat open as tech selloff, Iran risks mount

Indian equities are poised for a flat open, with Gift Nifty trading around 24,097, as investors weigh dual threats from escalating Middle East conflicts and a widening global tech selloff. The frontline Nifty 50 and Sensex indices are expected to exhibit a cautious bias. Broad market sentiment remains under pressure from sustained crude oil prices and continued weakness in the domestic rupee.

Geopolitical risks have become the primary drag on sentiment following a sixth wave of US airstrikes on Iran. “Investor concerns have intensified after the US launched a sixth wave of airstrikes on Iran, further escalating the conflict and keeping global financial markets on edge. Any fresh deterioration in the situation could trigger renewed risk aversion and increase volatility across asset classes,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. The military action has amplified fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy markets tense.

Compounding the geopolitical anxiety is a sharp reassessment of artificial intelligence valuations, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.47% to 25,881.95 overnight. The selloff was triggered by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which dropped despite beating second-quarter expectations. “Markets instead focused on the company’s significantly higher 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $60–64 billion, up from the earlier $52–56 billion range, raising concerns over near-term margins despite continued optimism surrounding AI-driven infrastructure spending,” said Ponmudi R.

The tech rout spilled over heavily into regional trading. “The fall in Asian markets came after the global semiconductor stocks sell-off extended into the region, with investors increasingly questioning whether aggressive AI-related capital expenditure will translate into near-term earnings growth,” said Ponmudi R. Japan’s Nikkei 225 crashed 4.23%, mainland China’s CSI 300 plunged 2.58%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.56%.

For Indian market participants, the confluence of elevated oil prices and weak global tech sentiment limits near-term upside potential. From a technical standpoint, the 24,000 level serves as crucial support for the Nifty 50. “A sustained break below this level could trigger a retest of the 23,800 – 23,900 zone, while immediate resistance is placed near 24,200. Global market trends, movements in crude oil prices, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing earnings season are expected to remain the key drivers of market sentiment through the session,” Ponmudi R said.