Kalshi traders think gas prices will stay higher for longer as U.S.-Iran tensions heat back up
Odds that gas prices are above $3.50 on Election Day have jumped to 75% on the platform.
With the U.S. and Iran exchanging strikes once again, and the return of normal traffic flows in the Strait of Hormuz in doubt, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think gas prices will likely still be elevated for longer now.
Speculators think there's a 75% chance that gas prices on Election Day, Nov. 3, will be above $3.50 per gallon, and place 39% odds that prices will be above $3.75. Before the recent developments in the Middle East, those odds were as low as 37% and 22%, respectively.
The contract is resolved using data from AAA's national average of gas prices .
On Thursday, the national average of gas prices was at $3.84, according to AAA, up 5 cents from the day prior. The rise comes as U.S. oil prices rose as high as $75 per barrel on Wednesday , up from around $68 per barrel on Monday. However, WTI crude eased to below $72 per barrel on Thursday.
While traders on Kalshi think gas prices will remain higher for longer, they also don't see them returning to new highs. They give just a 43% chance gas prices cross $4.60 this year, although that's up from about a one-in-three chance before renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
The high for gas prices in 2026 was on May 21, when the average hit $4.56. Before the war with Iran began, the national average for U.S. gas prices was below $3 per gallon.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
