ASML raises 2026 sales forecast to €45bn on AI demand
Europe's largest company by market capitalisation has significantly raised its 2026 sales guidance, signalling that capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure remains robust despite recent market jitters.
ASML has raised its full-year net sales forecast for 2026 to between €43 billion and €45 billion, up from a previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results, pushing its shares up more than 5%. The upgrade comes at a critical moment for global tech markets, which have recently suffered sharp sell-offs over concerns that an artificial intelligence bubble was deflating.
The updated guidance provides concrete evidence that the AI investment cycle is holding firm. As the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines required to print the most advanced chips, ASML serves as a reliable bellwether for the sector. "ASML's results reinforce just how strong demand remains across the semiconductor sector," said Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot.
"The company delivered a solid beat and raise, with particularly strong demand coming from both memory and logic chips, although memory is currently growing faster," Barringer added.
Net sales for the three months through June reached €9.3 billion, up from €7.7 billion a year earlier, while net profits climbed to €2.9 billion. The company also lifted its gross margin forecast for 2026 to between 54% and 56%, compared to a prior estimate of 51% to 53%. For the third quarter of 2026, ASML anticipates sales of between €11 billion and €12 billion.
To meet this accelerating demand, ASML is expanding its industrial footprint. The company plans to increase production capacity by roughly 30% next year for both its advanced EUV machines and older deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems. Management is also evaluating an additional 30% expansion in 2028. "Our order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of the year," said Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet, noting that customers "continue to accelerate their capacity expansion plans."
Strong demand is offsetting the impact of escalating US-China trade restrictions. Washington has curbed high-tech exports to China, prompting Beijing to label the measures "technological terrorism". Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said ASML expects China to represent around 20% of its 2026 sales, noting the market is "moving in sync with the overall behaviour that we see globally."
This follows a previous company warning that Chinese sales would "decline significantly" this year. The operational ramp-up comes after a January restructuring expected to eliminate roughly 1,700 mostly leadership roles across the Netherlands and the United States. With advanced chips increasingly vital to everything from smartphones to defence systems, ASML's upgraded visibility suggests the semiconductor upcycle has considerable runway left.
