India equities set for lower open as Middle East tensions lift crude
Indian benchmark indices are poised for a gap-down opening on Monday as escalating US-Iran conflicts drive crude prices higher, threatening to reverse last week's broad-based rally.
Indian benchmark indices are expected to open sharply lower on Monday, snapping a strong recent rally, as escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East roil Asian markets. Gift Nifty indicators were trading around 24,056, nearly 186 points below Friday’s close, signaling a negative start for the domestic session.
The shift in sentiment follows rising tensions between the US and Iran, which have sparked concerns over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting surge in crude oil prices is dampening domestic market sentiment, threatening to halt the momentum that drove broad-based buying across sectors last week.
Broader Asian markets reflected this uncertainty early on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.74%. Conversely, the Kosdaq managed a 0.73% gain and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures pointed to a positive opening.
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, observed that Friday’s rally improved the underlying market bias. The Sensex climbed 827.57 points to settle at 77,569.39, while the Nifty 50 advanced 244.10 points to end at 24,206.90. For the coming session, Parekh sees daily support at 24,000 and resistance at 24,400.
Parekh noted that the near-term trajectory depends heavily on geopolitical stability. “With the geo-political tensions as of now under control, as mentioned earlier, the index would have the important near-term support at 23800 zone whereas on the upside, a decisive move above the resistance hurdle at 24400 is necessary to trigger for fresh upward move in the coming days," she said.
The banking index mirrored this strength, opening near 57,600 on Friday before closing just above 58,000. Parekh noted that sector sentiment is easing positively. However, the index must sustain its 50-day exponential moving average support zone at 56,400, while a decisive breach above 58,600 is necessary to confirm a breakout and establish an expected daily range of 57,300 to 58,800.
For intraday positioning, Parekh provided specific parameters for three equities. Astral carried a buy level at ₹1333 with a target of ₹1305 and a stop loss at ₹1385. Apl Apollo Tubes and Sammaan Capital were given buy levels of ₹1835 and ₹166.40, with targets of ₹1800 and ₹162.50, and stop losses of ₹1900 and ₹177, respectively.
