Robinhood eyes Crypto.com deal for prediction markets
Robinhood is negotiating to integrate Crypto.com's event contracts, a move that could significantly boost revenue but exposes the trading app to a deepening regulatory clash.
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to integrate the crypto exchange's yes-or-no event contracts into its prediction markets platform. The discussions signal that the retail trading app is actively seeking to expand its supplier base for these contracts.
The company established its dedicated prediction markets hub in March 2025. It initially facilitated trades through Kalshi, a move designed specifically to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements set by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Robinhood has since broadened its network by adding ForecastEx and Rotella as additional providers.
This strategic expansion has caught the attention of equity analysts tracking the company. Bernstein recently increased its price target on Robinhood stock to $160, up from a previous target of $130 per share. The upgrade was directly driven by the firm's promising outlook in both prediction markets and the emerging sector of tokenized equities.
The revenue potential for Robinhood is significant if current market growth trajectories hold. Bernstein estimates that the company's revenue derived specifically from prediction markets could reach $1.7 billion by the year 2028. In a broader April assessment, the analysts predicted that overall trading volumes across prediction markets could surge to $1 trillion by 2030.
Realizing these financial projections requires surviving a complex regulatory environment in the United States. The CFTC has firmly stated that it holds “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts, positioning them strictly under federal oversight.
State-level gaming authorities are actively challenging that federal authority. Authorities in many states have filed lawsuits aimed at blocking or restricting prediction market companies from operating within their borders.
For market professionals, Robinhood's pursuit of a Crypto.com partnership highlights a fundamental risk-reward dynamic. The stock offers direct exposure to a large new market, but its ultimate valuation remains tethered to the unresolved legal conflict between state regulators and the federal government.
