Indian Markets Set for Weak Open Amid Middle East Tensions and Rising Oil Prices

Indian benchmark indices are poised for a weak open on Friday, extending a four-day losing streak. The Gift Nifty indicates a gap-down start, trading at a discount of over 180 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.

This downward pressure stems from a confluence of global headwinds, primarily escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US military recently conducted its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, keeping energy supply concerns elevated and triggering a broad risk-off selloff in global equities.

Crude oil prices remain near psychologically critical levels, with Brent hovering just under $100 a barrel and WTI in the $92 to $93 range. Although both benchmarks saw slight intraday pullbacks, they are on track for double-digit weekly gains, reigniting inflation concerns and pushing US Treasury yields higher.

For major oil-importing economies like India, this sustained spike in energy costs poses a direct threat to growth outlooks and corporate margins. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that the renewed energy cost pressures are reinforcing a cautious mood among investors already wary of persistent inflation.

Adding to external pressures, the United States announced fresh Section 301 tariff rates on imports from 60 countries, citing concerns over forced labour. India was placed in the lower 10 percent tariff category, introducing a new layer of trade friction for Indian exporters.

Technical Outlook

Market technicians warn of further downside risk if key support levels fail. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking, observed that the Nifty 50 has retested the lower band of its 23,800 to 24,400 consolidation range. A decisive break below this floor could trigger a decline toward the 23,600 zone.

The Bank Nifty index faces similar bearish momentum, trading just above its 200-day exponential moving average of 56,495. Ponmudi R highlighted that a break below the immediate 56,300 to 56,400 support zone could accelerate selling pressure toward the 55,800 level, leaving bears firmly in control of the near-term trend.

Broader commodity markets reflect this complex macroeconomic environment. Despite the weekly gains in crude, precious metals edged lower on Friday as expectations of prolonged higher interest rates dampened non-yielding assets. Spot gold eased to $4,042.77 per ounce, while silver slipped to $57.56.