Grid scarcity and tech deals push Constellation Energy toward $32 EPS

Constellation Energy expects its total adjusted earnings per share to reach approximately $32.23 by 2036, assuming its base earnings grow at more than 10% annually after 2029 and account for 70% of total earnings. The projection starts from an estimated base earnings midpoint of $6.70 per share in 2026, with management forecasting annualized growth exceeding 20% through 2029.

This earnings trajectory relies on a tightening supply of reliable power in the United States. Electricity demand is forecast to hit a record 4,269 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 and climb to 4,399 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The strain on the grid is already visible in the PJM Interconnection market, which manages the grid across parts of 13 states and Washington, D.C.

In its latest capacity auction, PJM secured 6.8 gigawatts less power than it deemed necessary. Prices hit the temporary cap of $325 per megawatt-day, a level the operator estimated would have reached $554.72 without the limit. For Constellation, which operates the largest nuclear fleet in the country alongside newly acquired natural gas and geothermal assets, this scarcity translates into pricing power.

The company is actively locking in demand to capitalize on this environment. As of March 31, Constellation had secured over 5,650 megawatts through long-term clean energy agreements. These include a 20-year contract to supply Meta Platforms from the Clinton nuclear plant in Illinois and a 20-year deal to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center in Pennsylvania for Microsoft. An additional 176-megawatt nuclear agreement with Walmart is set for June 2026.

These corporate contracts align with broader federal policy shifts. The Trump Administration has set a target to quadruple domestic nuclear capacity from roughly 100 gigawatts in 2024 to 400 gigawatts by 2050. To facilitate this expansion, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has proposed streamlining environmental reviews and reactor licensing to make the process more predictable.

Following its acquisition of Calpine, Constellation's total generating capacity stands at roughly 55 gigawatts. With regulatory barriers easing and data center demand backing its order book, the company's contracted revenue provides a highly visible runway toward its decade-long earnings targets.